1. Introduction and Context
I am joined by Professor Muhammad Morandi joining from Tehran. Professor Morandi, thanks so much again for joining me today. Thank you very much for inviting me. It's always a pleasure.
2. Iran's Stance on US Threats
Professor Morandi, my first question to you: You know Iran right now is standing very defiant to Trump's war escalation amid all of this liberation day hype. It's not cowtowing to the presence of warplanes and ships that are heading its way, and it's promising reciprocal blows and even the rapid buildup of nuclear weapons development should it be necessary. Is the US and Israel right now, Professor Morandi, sowing the seeds for their demise? Or is this catastrophic war that's building up going to lead to Iran's ultimate defeat? Professor Morandi, what is your initial impressions of this question?
3. Professor Morandi's Military Background
I have fought in war since I was 16 as a volunteer. I went and fought on and off few months every year as a volunteer until the war ended six years later. It was an eight-year long war, but the first two years I was too young to volunteer. When I was 16 I volunteered. Since I was still young, I had to give a sort of exam or was interviewed and was allowed to go and fight.
4. Willingness to Fight for Beliefs
If I could go to Gaza I would go to Gaza. If I could go to Lebanon I'd go to Lebanon. If I could go to Syria I'd go to Syria because if it's something I believe in, I'd fight for it. Of course Yemen the same. But war is horrible - there's no doubt about it. I hate war. If I have to fight a war I'll fight a war, but I hate war. I don't want war.
5. Consequences of US-Iran Conflict
I believe that the United States would lose a war with Iran. Everyone would lose - the world would lose. War is horrible. The war in Ukraine is a loss for Russia and it's a loss for Ukraine. It's a loss for the West but the loss for Russia is less than the West. That's why Russia's winning relatively speaking - Russia comes out on top. We predicted that from the very beginning - many of us, you yourself, me and some of our friends - but war is still horrible and it's a loss for everyone.
6. Iran's Preparedness Against US Threats
I don't want war to happen, but it's not something that the Islamic Republic of Iran is going to be fearful of. It does not want war, but if it has to confront the United States it will confront the United States.
7. Iran's Position on US Negotiations
We've already seen that. Trump sent a letter which had an implicit threat. The Iranians said "No we're not going to negotiate. We're not going to have direct talks." The Iranians said "As usual just as in the past we are prepared to have indirect talks," which we've always had with Trump and with previous administrations.
8. Trump's Potential Offramp
We've heard over the last couple days in the media that the Trump team is thinking about the Iranian proposal for indirect negotiations. That's not a proposal - the Iranians never proposed that. Iran has said it's willing to continue indirect negotiations - we've already been doing that. So there's nothing new there.
9. Trump's Instability in Policy Making
But the very fact that they put it this way and they've said it in the media indicates that it is possible Trump wants an offramp. He wants the opportunity to deescalate at least for now. That may not be true or may be true until tonight when he tweets something new because that's how Trump works. He says one thing, the next day it's something else.
10. Example of Tariff Instability
This whole tariff saga - we've heard different things with Canada, the United States, Mexico. It keeps changing and then suddenly today we got a list that's different or the percentages are different from what they were going to be earlier, and it may evolve again tomorrow. Trump is not a very stable person - he's not stable at all.
11. Iran's Distrust of US Commitments
If we say he's seeking for an offramp, that means he may be seeking for an offramp today but not necessarily tomorrow. That's one of the reasons why Iran can't negotiate with Trump - we can't trust anything that he says. If he says he'll agree to something today, he may change his mind tomorrow.
12. Example of Gaza Ceasefire Reversal
Look at what happened in Gaza the day before he came to power. His people negotiated the ceasefire and we were told his representative went and told Netanyahu to sit down and shut up and do as we say. Remember it was on a Saturday and Netanyahu's office supposedly said he cannot meet anyone today and so on, and he was forced to do so.
13. US Inconsistency in Policy
But then what happened? We were told he's a man of peace who wants to end this holocaust, and then he said Palestinians must leave - the deal that he negotiated, the deal that he is the guarantor. He is saying the Palestinians must leave - that's totally against the deal. And then later on he gives the green light to Netanyahu to restart the mass slaughter of women and children.
14. Core Problems in Dealing with Trump
How can we negotiate with Trump? There are two issues here: Can Trump defeat Iran or will Iran defeat the United States? Will the world lose? What will happen? War is tragic, but how can we negotiate with this guy? How can we sit down and talk with him when he changes his mind every day?
15. Historical US Untrustworthiness
The United States does that - it's not just him. You saw with the Minsk accords but also the Istanbul negotiations that could have ended the war in Ukraine three years ago. Who pushed Zelensky to quit the talks? It was the previous British prime minister, but who was he speaking on behalf of? It was the United States.
16. JCPOA Violations by US
The United States never fulfilled their side of the bargain when they signed the JCPOA under Obama. It wasn't just Trump who tore up the deal - Obama was violating the deal from day one even though Iran was fully committed. But Trump is even worse.
17. Possibility of Negotiations with US
The question is: can we even negotiate? I think the answer to that is at least for now No. There's no one in Washington who you can speak with and be sure that what he says matters or will be carried out.
18. Disagreement with Scott Ritter
This is where my friend Scott Ritter and I have a disagreement. We had a Twitter exchange a few days ago - some of our friends probably read them. We had 15-20 tweets that went back and forth. Scott was saying basically that Iran should give up its sovereign right to nuclear program because Trump will destroy Iran.
19. Iran's Sovereign Rights
My response was: first of all, if you accept that logic then even if Iran gives up its nuclear program, its missile defense capabilities, its allies across the region, why shouldn't Trump go further? He has nuclear weapons. He can threaten Iran based on Trump's logic - on Scott's logic - and can have the keys to Tehran. He can go as far as he wants, and that's what the neocons want.
20. Cultural Rejection of Humiliation
I don't see that as acceptable. First, the Iranians would never allow their sovereignty to be taken away from them. It's part of their religious culture, part of their identity. Anyone who knows about Imam Hussein and Karbala - the grandson of the prophet - knows how when the despot of his era wanted him to submit, he said never to humiliation. That is a key part of our Muslim Iranian Shia identity.
21. Ashura and Cultural Identity
Every year when they commemorate Ashura and the march of the grandson of the prophet, it's a slogan that people regularly chant in religious ceremonies. So ideologically, humiliation is not something they can accept.
22. Trust in US Commitments
But even if they were to say hypothetically "for the sake of humanity we will relinquish part of our sovereignty" - who are you going to trust here? You give up your sovereignty (which is not just sovereignty but your insurance policy) and you're going to put your faith in Trump? In the United States which is busy carrying out a holocaust in Gaza, which is bombing Yemen?
23. US Actions in Yemen
Since they cannot bomb and destroy their military targets, they're destroying the public water reservoirs in Yemen. You want to trust the United States? What fool would do that? Obama did not abide by his own commitments - why would Trump of all people abide by his commitments?
24. Practical Defense Considerations
There's no one to negotiate with in Washington. Ideologically speaking, character-wise it doesn't make sense to us. Practically speaking it doesn't make sense. And it's our insurance policy - our defense capability. If we don't have the ability to defend ourselves, the neocons would come in tomorrow.
25. Assessment of US Military Threat
But I don't think the Americans can win that war - a conventional war. Scott Ritter has spoken about nuclear annihilation, basically saying the United States is so sinister and evil (which I agree - it is utterly sinister and evil because it has the same murderous culture but much more hypocrisy).
26. Western Hypocrisy in Warfare
The West kills and then expects you to thank them and acknowledge their moral superiority. At least Saddam Hussein didn't do that. At least these Zionists and Nazis and death squads across the world of past weren't so arrogant - they just killed.
27. Iran's Missile and Drone Capabilities
If the United States was to use a nuclear weapon - first of all they cannot prevent Iran from firing hundreds of thousands of missiles and drones from their many underground missile and drone bases across the country at targets across the region.
28. Effectiveness of Iranian Weapons
Remember the Iranian missiles that were fired at Israel - the Israelis couldn't stop them, nor could the Americans when the Iranians fired at the al-Assad base. Iranian drones could take out everything in the Persian Gulf region, and there are hundreds of thousands of them. These potential targets are not far away - they're very close.
29. Impact on Global Economy
The Americans won't be able to stop them. A war in the Persian Gulf would mean the end of the global economy. This goes back to something Scott said in one of his tweets - that America is self-sufficient. No - the American consumer is completely dependent on cheap energy.
30. Potential Oil Price Shock
If the price of oil goes to $500 a barrel, sure some people are going to get super rich but the consumer is going to be crushed. Electricity, gasoline, anything that has to do with energy - it will shut down businesses, factories. People won't be able to sustain themselves anymore. It would be ruinous for the world, and then you'd have tens if not hundreds of millions of people on the move.
31. Migration Consequences
If Trump and his supporters are unhappy about the number of "illegals" or refugees pouring into the United States from the southern border, imagine what it's going to look like when the global economy collapses. The same is true with Europe.
32. US Global Isolation
It's not a situation that the Americans can win. The isolation that would come about through a nuclear attack - just look right now with the tariffs. The world is outraged. You see the Chinese and the Japanese and the Koreans how they are talking and trying to coordinate with one another. These three countries have very poor relations with each other, but Trump has succeeded in bringing them together - just like Trump has brought Russia and Iran and China together.
33. Nuclear Use Consequences
He's isolating the United States from the global majority. A nuclear weapon would totally destroy any credibility that the United States has. The world would turn against it utterly. But still, they would not win.
34. Assessment of War Likelihood
I don't think this is a winnable war. Based on logic, I don't think there will be a war. But the United States is not a logical regime - it's a very arrogant, emotional, angry regime. This is not new - it's always been like that. It sees itself as exceptional and superior to the rest of the world, so we can't expect logic and reason.
35. Zionist Influence on US Policy
The Zionists and the Zionist lobby in the United States are pushing for war. They need war. It's not good for the Israeli regime - none of these wars have been - but Netanyahu and his fanatical Zionist supporters (all Zionists are fanatical, but these very fanatical right-wingers with him) need this war.
36. Final Assessment and Iran's Preparedness
I'm sure there are many people in the U.S. military who know the United States will not win a war against Iran and they don't want war. That's where things stand. At the moment, I think the calculation in Tehran is that there won't be war, but they are preparing themselves as if war is inevitable.